For Every Entertainment Industry Job 'Lost' To Infringement, Could 12 Jobs Be Created Elsewhere?
from the fun-with-stats dept
For years we've debunked various entertainment industry studies claiming ridiculous job and economic "losses" from copyright infringement. These studies tend to have all sorts of problems; ignoring the ability to adapt and to introduce new business models, using "ripple effects" in just one direction to double, triple and quadruple count the same "losses" over and over again, and counting every download as a "lost sale." The ripple effects one is especially pernicious because the industry likes to pretend that the impacts of infringement only go in one direction. They ignore that the money not spent on such content doesn't disappear from the economy but can be used elsewhere -- perhaps in areas that provide greater economic growth.
A few years ago, the folks at CCIA smartly took the copyright industry's exact methodology and showed that for all the claims of how much copyright contributed to the economy, exceptions to copyright contributed even more. While the copyright maximalists totally missed the point and attacked the methodology -- not realizing that, in doing so, they had undermined their own methodology -- the point was made. If you believe the claims from the copyright industry, then you also have to believe that the exceptions are more important. The methodology is the same, so either neither are right or both are right.
It looks like Rick Falkvinge, of The Pirate Party, has now done something similar on the "job loss" side of things, and concluded that, using similar methodology to the industry reports, for every job "lost" by copyright infringement, the positive ripple effects in the other direction mean that 11.8 new jobs are created. So if we accept the claim that 1.2 million jobs can be lost due to infringement, it would mean that a separate 14.2 million jobs were created elsewhere.
The report broke down the "creative industry," by noting that (contrary to copyright maximalist claims), most of that industry doesn't actually rely on copyright to make money. In fact, certain "creative" industries could be seen as "copyright-inhibited." For example, advertising. As we constantly hear from copyright maximalists, various sites are making big bucks by using advertising in association with file sharing. So based on the industry's own argument, it seems that the advertising market is clearly copyright-inhibited, and it would grow if there was greater infringement. After going through the numbers, it was determined that the majority of GDP, by quite a bit, are likely in the "copyright-inhibited" arena.
Now, you can certainly argue with the methodology here. I don't think anyone actually believes these numbers are accurate. But it's using the same basic methodology, assumptions and thought processes behind the studies in the other direction. You can also, obviously, claim that Falkvinge is biased. He is. But is he more biased than the entertainment industry legacy players who do the other studies? It seems clear that the industries are likely to be more biased, since they have billions of dollars bet on keeping the old structures in place. I think both studies are probably far from accurate in all sorts of ways, but if you're going to cite the entertainment industry's claims based on this kind of methodology, it seems you should also have to accept these claims. Not doing so suggests serious cognitive dissonance or someone who is paid not to believe the truth.
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As an IPO looms, Skype is looking for new revenue streams that will help continue its growth and improve its financial prospects. Monday, it unveiled the next big revenue generator: ads on its Skype Windows desktop client.
Skype said in a blog post Monday it will begin rolling out test ads in the U.S., U.K. and Germany this week from big brands including Groupon, Universal Pictures, and Visa. The ads, which will be adjusted over time, will appear in the home tab of the Skype client at the top of the application. In an attempt to preserve the user experience, the ads will be limited, so users will only see one brand a day. Skype said it won’t use pop-ups, but will try to target ads to users to make them relevant using non-personally identifiable demographic data. Users can opt-out of those targeted ads if they choose. Skype said it has already tested some ads with Rdio.
The move to advertising has been tossed around for a long time and actually seems a bit overdue. Skype said it is almost wholly reliant on SkypeOut revenue, which made up 86 percent of its $860 million in revenue last year, according to its updated S-1 filing. Skype knows it needs to diversify its revenue if it wants to grow and have the money to invest in new features, and it needs the money to keep Skype-to-Skype calls free. By tapping advertising as a new revenue stream, it can ease its over-reliance on SkypeOut, which the company identified as a risk factor.
Skype recently announced it has hit 29 million concurrent users, and said in its S-1 that its overall user base is up to 663 million. It has a lot of people communicating, increasingly through video, which makes up 42 percent of calls. It’s an expensive setup, but it’s also a great opportunity for advertising. Fortune last year reported that Skype could rake in $200 million from advertising, especially for video chats, which could host ads alongside the chat. Overall, Skype said its users made 207 billion minutes of Skype-to-Skype calls last year. All that engagement can be monetized well if done with some restraint.
That seems to be Skype’s main concern with advertising. The company said it is moving slowly because it believes the user experience is paramount. And it’s still not clear to Skype how big an opportunity it has on its hands. Here’s the important language from the S-1:
…it is still uncertain what level of revenues can be generated through advertising. Furthermore, we may face difficulty in successfully implementing advertising on certain platforms, such as mobile devices. Finally, our users may respond negatively to receiving advertisements through their Skype software client, which could negatively and materially affect user engagement, our Skype brand and our results of operations.
Skype said in addition to advertising, it will ramp up its enterprise efforts and is also looking at gaming and virtual goods as other potential revenue sources. The advertising effort is Windows-only for now, but if all goes well and Skype avoids an uproar, expect it to appear on Mac and mobile platform as well.
For all its success, Skype is still in need of some revenue diversification. It’s getting there with these ads, which should slowly beef up revenues. A rumored deal with Facebook to provide video chat could also provide some oomph with a boost of new users. Look for more announcements as the Skype money-making machine starts to crank into high gear.
Related content on GigaOM Pro: (sub req’d)
- Report: The Consumer Video Chat Market, 2010-2015
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