foreclosure auctions

As we've been saying, there are two different worlds from the perspective of the economy, and here's a look at the two different worlds from the eyes of the media.  - Ilene

Tinsel Tuesday – Market Decorations Make Us Merry

Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World

I figured out how to get bullish!

Just read the Wall Street Journal.  On the front page we have "Nuclear Pact Adds Backers" above the fold along with a fluff piece on the weather in Europe. There are 3 other featured articles on the front page of the World’s most widely-read financial paper and one is a fluff piece on the Jimmy Stewart museum, one is on the obscure concept of betting people are going to die (very fun and interesting but "The World’s biggest financial paper"?) and the last is on the SEC looking into Mark Hurd’s exit from HP.  On the left is "What’s News" with about 30 summaries of articles in the paper so one would think you could look this over and have a really good idea of what’s going on in the World.

I see that "Spain said its regional governments are on track to meet their budget targets" and Dow component Boeing (who fell off yesterday) announced a "$1 Billion commercial satellite deal with the Mexican Government" and Blackstone is starting a $15Bn fund and TD is buying Chrysler Financial for $6.3Bn and (and this is a real XMas gift to Wall Street) "A Senate deal to fund the federal government until early March doesn’t include money to enact the health-care overhaul or stepped up regulation of Wall Street" and also that North Korea held their fire during a South Korean artillery drill.  Wow!  All seems right with the World, doesn’t it?

If I just read the WSJ, I find no reason to be bearish at all.  Certainly there is no mention of Spanish Bond Yields rising 37% in a month to 5.5% at today’s $4Bn bond auction. There is no mention of China’s Vice Chairman of National Development saying that China "needs to prepare for a long- term fight against inflation" or that oil imports into China are expected to fall off next year as their economy cools down. You would think the fact that BAC, JPM and four other lenders facing a suspension of foreclosure activity under court order in New Jersey would be a news story or perhaps some mention of the 29-year high in sugar prices would be of interest to investors along with the limit-up trading in cotton to record highs for no particular reason other than the fact that it’s a commodity and speculators will buy pretty much anything in the current frenzy. 

Gold is up for the third consecutive day, China’s money-market rates jumped to a 2-year high as banks raised their reserve ratios (this one didn’t even make the WSJ’s on-line Asia section, but you can real all about the World’s most expensive noodles!). Pimco said "Untenable Policies Will Lead to Eurozone Break-Up" according to the London Telegraph with Andrew Bosomworth stating: "Greece, Ireland and Portugal cannot get back on their feet without either their own currency or large transfer payments. The euro crisis is not over by a long shot. Market tensions will continue into 2011. The mechanism comes far too late."

Of course that’s nothing compared to Meredith Whitney’s dire warning of a financial meltdown driven by the collapse of US municipal bond auctions – a topic we discussed last Wednesday.  And Meredith is just full of holiday cheer compared to David Rosenberg, who puts a fair value on the S&P at no more than 1,120 and makes many excellent points that the market is now 10% overvalued and gives "10 Signs that the Holiday Retail Season is Going Worse Than People Realize" or John Hussman, who has certainly channeled his inner Phil with "Things I Believe" too!  

We are, then, getting to the root of my problem – I read too much! I wake up early every morning and read my various papers and web sites and, from that, I formulate a short-term and long-term investing premise. Perhaps I have forgotten what the Great Emancipator once said:

 

""A total of 78,955 U.S. properties received default notices (NOD, LIS) in November, a 21 percent decrease from the previous month and a 31 percent decrease from November 2009 — the 10th straight annual decrease in default notices. November’s default notices total was the lowest since July 2007. ""

 

DEFAULT NOTICES,  administrative 3 months mandatory paper trail, properly 'served' to meet stage one Legal Requirements...

 

November 2010 lowest since July 2007 thats 3 years and 5 months = 41 months 

so finally exhausted the continued monthly supply of about 80,000 defaulting type house buyers, 3.28 million defaulters

 

SINCE THE TAIL END CHARLIES finally 'evicted' is/has been at 95,000 / month...(why MORE..hum) ANYWAY, FOR SURE ALL 100% OF THE DEFAULTERS SEEM TO BE CONTINUING TO NOT PAY..remaining rent free during the judicial cycle from default to final eviction...

 

How Long on average ? 12-24 months per house rent-free? pure guess.. another guess is therrefore HOW MUCH 'TAKE HOME ADDITIONAL SPENDING MONEY IS IT @ 24 months and say $1500/month (very modest estimate, low end). and 3.28 million 'beneficiaries' over the 41 months thus far...

 

Well, a NICE SOLID $36,100 per household ....11.75 x 10 (6+4)  =>  11.75 tens of billions..=>.$117.50 BILLION boost to the USA economy, spread over 41 months, very very good...

 

Another pure guess is IF the US IRS will make an Administrative Final Decision regards the tax status of the UNPAIDFORGIVEN DEBTS on those mortgages...

 

You see, of course, that for every Bank Tax deduction for 'written off mortgage-debt', that same EQUAL amount of "DEBT FORGIVEN MUST BE TAXED", against the 'beneficiary...shall it be 'short term' or 'long term' windfall income?,

 

and under what special payment terms shall the IRS allow the money-due to be paid...probably the short term mode = 35% average for blue collar workers, spread over 2 years of the estimated $36,100 / household finally evicted, about $12,600 'back taxes due'

 

and for non-citizens, non-payment could result in deportation/refusals to renew VISAs and all THAT...right?

 

 

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