About Me 0081: foreclosure statistics

Washington (CNN) – It is not enough to say the economy is "struggling," "hurting," "sluggish" or "slow."

In this week's American Sauce, we nail down the specifics on our economic health: income, spending, GDP and jobs (now and future). And we look at a core problem, still: housing. We'll introduce you to a woman who's part of the next large group to face foreclosure (conventional loans on moderate homes). She personally demonstrates that all that talk of loan modifications has led to a tangled system of obstacles.

Click here to listen, or keep reading for a quick, bulleted list.

American Sauce's economic check-up:

* Personal bankruptcies: 1.5 million individuals applied for bankruptcy in the year between Sept. 2009 and Sept. 2010. That was a nearly 14 percent increase from the year before.

* Business bankruptcies: 58,322 businesses applied for bankruptcy in that time. Notably, that was a slight decrease of less than 1 percent from the year before.

* Bankruptcy stats: Look through them for yourself at http://www.uscourts.gov/Statistics/BankruptcyStatistics.aspx

* Unemployment rate: 9.8 percent in November, up from 9.6 percent in October.

* Those on unemployment rolls: 15.1 million people.

* Those not counted in unemployment rate: Up to 5 million. That includes as many as 3.5 million who have maxed out unemployment benefits and 1.3 million workers who have stopped filing paperwork for unemployment benefits, saying they do not believe they can find a job and have given up.

NOTE: there are no reliable figures on how many "99'ers" exist. From the Labor Department, we know 3.5 million people have fallen off the unemployment rolls but we do not know how many of them have found a job and how many are still unemployed.

* Unemployment Stats: Here are the latest – http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

* Personal income: Went up slightly in November, rising 0.5 percent in November.

* Personal spending: Also increased last month, going up 0.4 percent.

* Income/spending stats can be found here from the Bureau of Economic Advisors: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

* New home sales: Dropped another 8.1 percent in October. It was a drop of 28.5 percent from a year before and a plummet of 80 percent from the height of the housing boom.

* New home prices: Average sales price was $194,900 in October, 13.9 percent lower than in September.

* Existing home sales: Slid 2.2 percent in October.

* Existing home prices: Averaged $170,000 in October.

* More on new home numbers from CNNMoney: http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/24/real_estate/new_home_sales/index.htm

* More on existing homes from CNNMoney: http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/23/real_estate/home_sales_slow/index.htm

For more stats, including the latest figure on Gross Domestic Product, click here for this week's American Sauce podcast:

It is hard to not laugh out loud at the amazing stupidity of those who say "It's Different Here".

Please consider 'Low-doc' home borrowers hit by rising rates

A new report shows a sharp increase in the number of 'low-doc' borrowers struggling to keep up with their mortgage repayments as interest rates rise.

Adjusted for loans that passed from being in arrears to being settled because the property was sold, the percentage of prime loans more than 90 days in arrears increased from 1.33 per cent in the June quarter to 1.37 per cent in the three months to the end of September.

However, Fitch says self-employed borrowers have been hit hard, which has pushed arrears among prime low documentation loans to a record 3.97 per cent - slightly higher than the previous peak of mortgage delinquencies in this segment reached during the peak of the financial crisis in the December quarter of 2008.

The associate director in Fitch's structured finance team James Zanesi says higher mortgage repayments appear to be hitting the self-employed sector much harder than employees.

"The three consecutive cash rate hikes ending in May 2010 modestly affected Australian prime mortgage performance in the third quarter of 2010. Households have demonstrated some stability in spite of the higher mortgage payments," he said.

The very worst performance in the September quarter continued to be amongst the closest equivalent Australia has to subprime loans - 'low-doc, non-conforming' borrowers.

The arrears rate amongst this group was 18.94 per cent, although it makes up a relatively tiny proportion of Australian mortgages.

Progression of Rot

Australia is starting to get hit hard but the important word in this sentence is starting. Rot starts at the edges and the outside periphery (subprime and low-doc), then spreads to the core.

The party is now over as I mentioned in Partied Out: A Recap of Australia's Now Imploding Housing Bubble; Property Bull Offers Jeremy Grantham $100m Housing bet, Party is Not Over

US Graphs, Statistics

Here is a nice set of US stats and graphs from the LPS Mortgage Monitor: October 2010 “Dashboard” that depicts where Australia will eventually head.

Total Delinquencies

Delinquencies remain about 2.7 times historical average, foreclosure inventories are 7.4 times and rising.

October Month-End Data: Conclusions

Foreclosure inventories continue to grow, the rise in delinquencies remains subdued as a result.
Accelerated foreclosure activity has led to a rapid decline in agency delinquencies. Foreclosure inventories have risen dramatically as a result.
Most western states have experienced a decline in the total 30 day and foreclosure inventory over the last six months.
The issue of current loans going delinquent remains, however more and more sixty day defaults are repeats.
Modification dominated seriously delinquent cures have declined over the last several months but still remain elevated.
More six and 12 month delinquent loans are moving to foreclosure, but the extremely delinquent category continues to grow.
Foreclosure sales dropped sharply, down 35 percent nationwide. Impact was across all investor categories.
Origination activity continues to accelerate with the government percentage declining. High quality lending is yielding the best vintage performance in years.

The housing rot in OZ has just started and it's a long way to the core. But it will get there. Australia can look forward to similar stats in years to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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About Me 0081

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

foreclosure statistics

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